- He will not back down, Erdogan will not release Brunson quickly. You and Erdogan can you worked a deal to secure the release of Branson, but she probably collapsed, because Erdogan is moving on goal. He wants more from you, including the surrender of the cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom he accuses of an unsuccessful coup attempt, among other reasons. And he will probably try to put pressure on you to turn Gülen and give more concessions than he already asked, because he thinks that you are obsessed with the release of Branson, even if at a high price.
- He will do it for you , Erdogan will make this Trump story, so that the bad press is not about him. Now he can simply blame you for economic turmoil in Turkey, despite the fact that the economy of Turkey came out long before you authorized two of its officials and raised tariffs. Lyra was in a spin for several months, but after that on Friday, after that, Erdogan link "National struggle" against the economic war that you began, not to mention the risks of the decline in the Turkish economy, which he is doing.
- He will admit the campaign. Erdogan managed to maintain a stable Turkish economy for many years, which has benefited its base with low and medium income, but nothing more. Erdogan drowned out the independence of the Central Bank, established his son-in-law as finance minister and, more generally, reduced the prudent economic policy. Lira lost over 30% its value this month, its external debt ratio through the roof and inflation is expected will reach 13% this year. Therefore, he needs to do something, and we estimate that the Central Bank will do an extraordinary increase in interest rates to influence inflation and try to calm the concerns of foreign investors about whether the Central Bank is allowed to work independently.
- It will turn to the east. As an ally in NATO, Erdogan agreed to the Brussels Declaration last month, who stated that Russia's aggressive actions "defy the alliance". But this did not stop him from burn Russian President Vladimir Putin and purchase of defense assets from him (violation of US sanctions) or scoring over Russia and Turkey's constant cooperation in the energy and defense industries during a convenient phone call on Friday. Erdogan is probably trying to publicly signal that he can move to the dark side, as well as Putin's anti-NATO side. We should also expect that Turkey will approach Iran. President Hassan Ruhani, President Putin and President Erdogan are already to work together in Syria, and now all three countries are under US sanctions (Turkey I said they will not apply your "unfair" sanctions against Iran.) Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran will stand behind Turkey and condemn your global campaign of bullying. His statements echoed Erdogan's statement last week that the US "bullying will not stop it" with Turkey. Expect that this three will share the points of conversation with you as they approach each other.
- He will reciprocate : Erdogan wrote on Friday that Turkey "will take care of its own business if the United States refuses to listen." Erdogan will not lie, he answered to your initial sanctions against two of his government ministers, responding with sanctions on their own. In response to your raising tariffs on steel and aluminum, he may want to take a reciprocal economic measure, but he is somewhat reserved, because he does not want to risk a trade war that could do more harm to the Turkish economy. Thus, Erdogan may be forced to make a more symbolic gesture against you – for example, expel an American diplomat or two, rather than risk a real economic war. If everything goes further, it will be able to retaliate against our military to military relations, including the depth of our intelligence exchange, the ability to deploy and manage assets and personnel (including nuclear weapons) at Injirlik Airbase and Turkey's contributions to NATO (this does not occur 2% of defense spending obligations, but has the second largest NATO army after the United States.)
Russia: something is cooking
But he can wait if you go to the second stage of these sanctions, which will begin in 90 days – if Russia does not meet the requirements that outstrip this second round of sanctions, which we consider unlikely, the second tranche could even curb Aeroflot – the Russian state airline – flights to the USA. If Aeroflot is banned, we will also see that Putin will prohibit specific flights of American carriers to Russia.
North Korea: Only you
Kim probably thinks that this strategy of division and conquest is working. Putin did it with tangible success. He tried to distance you from your agencies and agencies, not so finely criticizing the FBI's counterintelligence investigation and the Ministry of Justice's convictions against the Russians, for example, flattering you and meeting you one-on-one in Helsinki. Probably, Kim followed Putin's example.