Turkey tries to unload its problems on Trampe (opinion)

We've come a long way since your fist with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit last month. After you declared higher tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum, seen as a punishment for Erdogan's refusal to release US pastor Andrew Brunson, Erdogan has scrambled against you and your policy. We share our assessment of how Erdogan will likely react to your actions and your internal pressure.
  • He will not back down, Erdogan will not release Brunson quickly. You and Erdogan can you worked a deal to secure the release of Branson, but she probably collapsed, because Erdogan is moving on goal. He wants more from you, including the surrender of the cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom he accuses of an unsuccessful coup attempt, among other reasons. And he will probably try to put pressure on you to turn Gülen and give more concessions than he already asked, because he thinks that you are obsessed with the release of Branson, even if at a high price.

  • He will do it for you
  • , Erdogan will make this Trump story, so that the bad press is not about him. Now he can simply blame you for economic turmoil in Turkey, despite the fact that the economy of Turkey came out long before you authorized two of its officials and raised tariffs. Lyra was in a spin for several months, but after that on Friday, after that, Erdogan link "National struggle" against the economic war that you began, not to mention the risks of the decline in the Turkish economy, which he is doing.

Mr. Chairman, prepare to disconnect Erdoğan

  • He will admit the campaign.
  • Erdogan managed to maintain a stable Turkish economy for many years, which has benefited its base with low and medium income, but nothing more. Erdogan drowned out the independence of the Central Bank, established his son-in-law as finance minister and, more generally, reduced the prudent economic policy. Lira lost over 30% its value this month, its external debt ratio through the roof and inflation is expected will reach 13% this year. Therefore, he needs to do something, and we estimate that the Central Bank will do an extraordinary increase in interest rates to influence inflation and try to calm the concerns of foreign investors about whether the Central Bank is allowed to work independently.

  • It will turn to the east.
  • As an ally in NATO, Erdogan agreed to the Brussels Declaration last month, who stated that Russia's aggressive actions "defy the alliance". But this did not stop him from burn Russian President Vladimir Putin and purchase of defense assets from him (violation of US sanctions) or scoring over Russia and Turkey's constant cooperation in the energy and defense industries during a convenient phone call on Friday. Erdogan is probably trying to publicly signal that he can move to the dark side, as well as Putin's anti-NATO side. We should also expect that Turkey will approach Iran. President Hassan Ruhani, President Putin and President Erdogan are already to work together in Syria, and now all three countries are under US sanctions (Turkey I said they will not apply your "unfair" sanctions against Iran.) Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran will stand behind Turkey and condemn your global campaign of bullying. His statements echoed Erdogan's statement last week that the US "bullying will not stop it" with Turkey. Expect that this three will share the points of conversation with you as they approach each other.

  • He will reciprocate
  • : Erdogan wrote on Friday that Turkey "will take care of its own business if the United States refuses to listen." Erdogan will not lie, he answered to your initial sanctions against two of his government ministers, responding with sanctions on their own. In response to your raising tariffs on steel and aluminum, he may want to take a reciprocal economic measure, but he is somewhat reserved, because he does not want to risk a trade war that could do more harm to the Turkish economy. Thus, Erdogan may be forced to make a more symbolic gesture against you – for example, expel an American diplomat or two, rather than risk a real economic war. If everything goes further, it will be able to retaliate against our military to military relations, including the depth of our intelligence exchange, the ability to deploy and manage assets and personnel (including nuclear weapons) at Injirlik Airbase and Turkey's contributions to NATO (this does not occur 2% of defense spending obligations, but has the second largest NATO army after the United States.)

Russia: something is cooking

If history is some kind of reference book, we should expect that Putin will respond to your last round of sanctions, and he probably plans how he will hit you. He met your punitive actions against Russia in the response image in the past, and this time everything will be different. When you drove Russian diplomats from the United States and closed the Russian consulate, he did the same in return. When we demanded that Russian media be registered as foreign agents, he mandatory nine US-backed media outlets to do the same in Russia. This relationship with the Titans.
Global transition from democracy to autocracy
Your new sanctions on certain American exports to Russia – exports that may have military objectives – already sent the Russian ruble to a two-year low, and we expect a Russian response aimed at Russian exports to the United States. But Putin is also under economic pressure and will not want to cut his nose off so that he calls his face, which means that he authorizes something that will not be expensive for Russian firms. One Russian legislator said Putin can stop the export of national security items, such as rocket engines RD-180, which we use to launch government satellites into space.

But he can wait if you go to the second stage of these sanctions, which will begin in 90 days – if Russia does not meet the requirements that outstrip this second round of sanctions, which we consider unlikely, the second tranche could even curb Aeroflot – the Russian state airline – flights to the USA. If Aeroflot is banned, we will also see that Putin will prohibit specific flights of American carriers to Russia.

North Korea: Only you

We estimate that North Korea will continue to share and win with you. They were trying to separate Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's "gangster" approach from your "intentions" for several weeks, despite the fact that he knew that Pompeo, Ambassador Nikki Haley and National Security Advisor John Bolton were most likely official statements by the US government.
Adding to this trend, last week North Korea issued another statement, arguing, what "[S]high-ranking officials in the US administration are making unfounded accusations against us and are making desperate attempts to step up international sanctions and pressure, they say "Is contrary to President Trump's intention."
In other words, Kim tries to knock you out against your team and make a not-so-subtle power game; he tells the world that he knows your intentions better than your own team. He probably does this because he is upset that he does not have any real sanctions from you, despite the fact that he does not deserve it – we are still waiting for North Korea to take important steps to denuclearize.

Kim probably thinks that this strategy of division and conquest is working. Putin did it with tangible success. He tried to distance you from your agencies and agencies, not so finely criticizing the FBI's counterintelligence investigation and the Ministry of Justice's convictions against the Russians, for example, flattering you and meeting you one-on-one in Helsinki. Probably, Kim followed Putin's example.

Source link

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More